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Thursday, February 9, 2023

December 31, 2022 Nintendo Quarterly Financial Update

By LUDWIG VON KOOPA - See-saw projections.

Remember about three months ago (see below the article footer for a link if you don't) when Nintendo raised their financial forecast guidance because the Switch should be doing so well? And then their stock price went up. Well... they took that back... and the stock price went down.

Nintendo Co LTD NTDOY consolidated financial forecast modifications for year ending march 31 2023
Nintendo raised their financial forecasts on November 8, 2022...
...Only to lower them again on February 7, 2023, which was the next earliest opportunity.

For net sales, they went from 1,600,000 million yen to 1,650,000 back to 1,600,000. Operating profit is lower than the very original forecast, while ordinary profit and profit attributable to owners of parent are still a little higher. I think in terms of a “market share console wars” mindset, we care most about net sales. So how did those go between October 1 and December 31, 2023? Well, down 1.9% year over year, with Nintendo management continuing to blame semiconductor shortages for a lack of supply, with no commentary on there being a lack of demand. Additionally, hardware sales expressed as profit continue to fall, due to the Nintendo Switch (OLED model) becoming the dominantly popular Nintendo Switch SKU during the holiday season. Nintendo continues to stress that they get less profit selling the (OLED model) versus the regular Nintendo Switch, contrary to what the FAKE NEWS has reported. To be more precise, in this quarter, they sold 4.16 million Nintendo Switch (OLED model)s, 1.08 million Nintendo Switch Lites, and 2.99 million regular Nintendo Switch consoles. It's been over a year, and the other FAKE NEWS claim that Nintendo would stop manufacturing and selling regular Nintendo Switch consoles continues to be a lie. Meanwhile, Nintendo also sold 76.70 million units of software, with 27 million-seller titles in the fiscal year. 8 of those are from third-parties which Nintendo won't report on, but here are some of those top sellers below:

Nintendo Switch software sales up to December 31 2022 million sellers Ring Fit Adventure Xenoblade Chronicles 3 Bayonetta Kirby
That “2 more” is Xenoblade Chronicles 3 and Bayonetta 3.
Mario Party Superstars was a holiday hit despite the availability of Mario Party and Mario Party 2 on Nintendo Switch Online + Expansion Pack.

Not included in the chart is that Pokémon Scarlet and Pokémon Violet have sold a combined 20.61 million units, which clearly means me not getting Pokémon Scarlet is irrelevant, and perhaps open borders will continue. That 48.41 million copies of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe I cited earlier this week has now reached 52.00 million copies, further justifying Saturday Night Live's decision to make a parody featuring the series. Ring Fit Adventure sold about 350,000 more copies (so it continues to remain on the top 10 selling software list), while the other non-Pokémon Japanese roleplaying game on the list, Xenoblade Chronicles 3, only sold a paltry 90,000 copies from October 1 to December 31, 2022. Splatoon 3 has also sold 10.13 million copies now, while Bayonetta 3 barely got onto the million-seller list with 1.04 million copies sold. I still don't think that helps the Bayonetta series reach the 450 million dollar value that disgraced voice actress Hellena Taylor thinks it's worth.

All of the above is still less sales than Nintendo expected. Even with that bit of information, as of December 31 2022, the Switch has sold 122.55 million units of hardware and 994.30 million units of software. That's more software than any console OR handheld in their history, and the only hardware it's less than is the Nintendo DS. (It just beat out the Game Boy.) That software only includes packaged physical games and digital versions of packaged physical games, so the real number of software is much higher. (It's just a less fair comparison to older consoles if you can boost the number by buying games for $5 on digital sales or shovelware on the eShop, though the popularity of digital purchases of otherwise retail games definitely helps the Switch's attach rate, as do schemes like the Nintendo Switch game vouchers.) It speaks to how great the Nintendo Switch's games library is... and then it became even greater with the Nintendo Direct that happened after these results were disclosed.

Stay tuned next week for KoopaTV's analysis of the questions and answers. He's excited to see questions from upset stock analysts about Nintendo's flip-flopping financial result forecasts and how Nintendo answers those, and if they will push back on Nintendo continually blaming semiconductor shortages rather than a loss in demand nearly six years into the Nintendo Switch's lifespan after Nintendo spent a long time downplaying semiconductor shortages as a potential risk.

The prior quarter's financial results (where the financial guidance was raised) are located here.
Last year's December 31, 2021 update is over here. It was more positive.
Click here for the question and answer session, which did not have the stock analysts express how upset they are.
The next quarter ended fiscal year 2023. Click here for the full disclosure.


  1. I don't know how much they expected to sell but i just gotta feeling that they'll make a much bigger profit in the coming months. Between Pikmin 4 and Professor Layton (etc.), there are all kinds of people announcing that they are finally going to buy a switch just because their beloved niche game is coming out. Once you finally get the console, why shouldn't you buy those other games you've been eyeing?

    Strictly on the idea of making money, i can't believe the switch doesn't have themes. People are willing to spend 1-5 dollars for a background photo with a smiling Nintendo character on it. I've never bought a theme, but some people buy multiple. Literally the easiest and cheapest way to make money and nintendo hasn't done it. If we ever do get it, it will probably be included with nintendo switch online memebership.

    1. Yeah, themes are pretty much pure profitable trinkets.


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